Fed Loans Losing Value

This seems like small potatoes now, but those Bear Stearns and AIG loans made by the Fed aren't doing too well. As of May 6, the Fed is under water by over $8 billion. Here are the details:



On the other hand, Commercial Paper Funding Facility outstandings are down from over $325 billion in December 2008 to $164.7 billion, and down $50 billion this past week alone.

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Is M3 Important?

There is interesting discussion on Paul Krugman’s NYT blog today regarding monetary expansion and the Great Depression. For the current crisis, I think you need to look at the divergence of M2 and M3. As institutional money market investors fund commercial paper that funds asset sales by originators, M2 is converted to M3. The money multiplier becomes unlimited as the original reserves used to fund loans are returned in full to the banking system with no new net increase in deposit liabilities. What’s happening right now is the reverse – M3 is liquidating and the monetary base is expanding to, in part, accommodate the conversion. If you look at Institutional Money Market Funds on Z.1 you will see the reductions in this (and, I believe other) components of M3 relating to credit expansion in the modern financial system. I have been waiting for the next Z.1 to confirm these movements.

I believe M3 is important, notwithstanding the Fed’s decision to stop publishing it. I have not concluded that the M3 expansion is the cause of the bubble, but it certainly shows how monetary expansion and, in particular credit expansion, contributed. I plan to post more on this after the holiday weekend.

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More From The Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve announced today that it will form a special purpose vehicle (the Commercial Paper Funding Facility or CPFF) that will purchase commercial paper in the marketplace from qualified issuers. This raises many questions, such as whether the Fed is now rationing credit to US companies without oversight.

The Federal Reserve is already in effect purchasing asset-backed commercial paper through its Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Liquidity Facility (ABCPMMLF) where it is lending money to banks to purchase commercial paper that is then pledged to the Federal Reserve. The twist here is that the loans to the banks are non-recourse, so if the commercial paper defaults the Federal Reserve is stuck, not the bank that borrowed the funds – same risk as ownership if you ask me. This action was authorized pursuant to section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act (see below). The commercial paper that banks are purchasing and pledging to the Federal Reserve under the ABCPMMLF is secured by the assets backing the asset-backed commercial paper.

The Federal Reserve is now expanding its use of this authority to purchase commercial paper directly from issuers that may be non-bank companies raising the prospect that the Federal Reserve will be rationing credit to US businesses. There is also an issue of authorization, and it seems definitions are malleable in times of crisis. From today’s announcement:

The CPFF will be structured as a credit facility to a special purpose vehicle (SPV) authorized under section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act. The SPV will serve as a funding backstop to facilitate the issuance of term commercial paper by eligible issuers.

According to section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act:

3. Discounts for Individuals, Partnerships, and Corporations In unusual and exigent circumstances, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, by the affirmative vote of not less than five members, may authorize any Federal reserve bank, during such periods as the said board may determine, at rates established in accordance with the provisions of section 14, subdivision (d), of this Act, to discount for any individual, partnership, or corporation, notes, drafts, and bills of exchange when such notes, drafts, and bills of exchange are indorsed or otherwise secured to the satisfaction of the Federal Reserve bank (emphasis added): Provided, That before discounting any such note, draft, or bill of exchange for an individual, partnership, or corporation the Federal reserve bank shall obtain evidence that such individual, partnership, or corporation is unable to secure adequate credit accommodations from other banking institutions. All such discounts for individuals, partnerships, or corporations shall be subject to such limitations, restrictions, and regulations as the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System may prescribe.

According to the highlighted section of the Act the commercial paper purchased by the Fed must be SECURED. My understanding of security in lending transactions is that there is a guaranty or some form of asset available to the lender that can be sold in the event of a default, the proceeds of which would be likely to repay the debt. According to the Federal Reserve's release:

Commercial paper that is not ABCP must be secured to the satisfaction of the Federal Reserve. The commercial paper may be secured in one of the following ways: (i) The issuer pays the SPV an upfront fee based on the commercial paper initially sold to the SPV and a further fee based on subsequent commercial paper sales above that amount (emphasis added); or (ii) The issuer obtains an indorsement or guarantee of the issuer’s obligations on the commercial paper sold to the SPV that is satisfactory to the Federal Reserve; or (iii) The issuer provides collateral arrangements that are satisfactory to the Federal Reserve; or (iv) The issuer otherwise provides security satisfactory to the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve will consult with market participants about other methods for issuers of non-ABCP commercial paper to provide satisfactory security to the Federal Reserve.

I wonder how being paid a fee for purchasing commercial paper meets the definition of SECURED under the Federal Reserve Act quoted above. It sounds more like creation of an insurance pool to me. Shouldn't the Federal Reserve obtain Congressional approval to purchase commercial paper from issuers in this manner? The authority is not clear to me.

I do not object to the Federal Reserve taking whatever action is within its authority that could help avert a financial disaster. What I do object to is when institutions bend the meaning of laws to accomplish what they want but then speak about the rule of law and the need to police the actions of those who seek to avoid compliance. Isn't this exactly how we got into this mess in the first place? I am also troubled by the fact that the Federal Reserve can now be seen as rationing credit to US corporations and that this situation is ripe for abuse through influence. There should, in my opinion, be oversight.

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Fed Goes Nuclear

The Federal Reserve is going nuclear. The TAF is doubling to $900 billion, interest will be paid on reserves beginning October 9, and the rules prohibiting commercial banks from purchasing assets from affiliated money market mutual funds is being relaxed. This last move puts FDIC insured deposits behind money market mutual funds which is, I believe, a roundabout way to get taxpayers behind the funds. They previously did this for the investment banking affiliates. The interest on reserves is required because the Fed is flooding the system with reserves and if it did not pay interest on reserves its target rate would be meaningless, as overnight lending rates would plummet to near zero. This is amazing – unfortunately - and there is likely more to come. Who thought $700 billion was a lot?

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Credit Market Developments

Treasury has proposed a $700 billion taxpayer funded (through issuance of debt) purchase program to acquire real estate assets from the financial industry. This has been coming for a long time, and goes all the way back to the failed Super SIV that was being discussed last Fall. Of course, the numbers have grown from what was a $70 - $100 billion plan to the current $700 billion plus plan, and this plan has the taxpayers purchasing the bad assets directly. The accounting issues of valuation, however, have not changed. What has changed is that the crisis has become so bad we are probably willing to throw out the rules to save the game.

The plan is essentially a $700 billion revolving line to acquire real estate assets at whatever prices and from whatever sellers Treasury wants. There is no protection for taxpayers in Treasury’s proposal, and I can only assume Treasury has left this aspect of the plan for Congress to address. If this isn’t ringing alarm bells all over Washington and Main Street I don’t know what will.

Treasury Secretary Paulson has submitted a very broad plan that gives him extraordinary discretion and prohibits any agency or judicial review. You can see a copy of what was submitted in this CNN article and read a description of the plan at the Treasury’s website. The submission raises many questions, three of which I will point out.

1. There is no provision for protection of taxpayers. As written, it seems that Treasury will simply purchase, at whatever price Treasury determines,

Mortgage-Related Assets.--The term "mortgage-related assets" means residential or commercial mortgages and any securities, obligations, or other instruments that are based on or related to such mortgages, that in each case was originated or issued on or before September 17, 2008.

The big question – at what price? If Treasury purchases securities at current market prices it doesn’t necessarily help the financial institutions that own them. Right now losses that would occur at market prices are being deferred through secured lending by the Federal Reserve, but this is obviously insufficient. If these assets are in addition to those pledged to the Fed, then this is a multi-trillion dollar problem. If Treasury pays more than current market prices, then how is the taxpayer protected? Not to get off on a rant here, but it seems to me that any financial institution that sells securities to taxpayers pursuant to this program should, at a minimum, direct all dividends to the Treasury until taxpayers have been fully repaid, at which time they can have the balance of the securities returned. It really irks me to think that financial institutions could sell the crap they profited from so handsomely over the past decade to taxpayers, letting us assume the risk, while the owners continue to collect dividends. Absolutely horrible result that I truly hope Congress will address. Some may argue that this would make it difficult for these institutions to raise capital, but that should be irrelevant now since the taxpayers are providing the capital if we pay above market prices for their securities. Another point – why are we purchasing commercial real estate assets and what are the limitations on commercial vs. residential?

2. I think there is a lack of transparency. The current proposal provides for a report to Congress three months after the program begins and then every six months. As a taxpayer whose money is being spent on these assets I want to know every week how much, who, when, and so on. I want to know which institutions are benefiting, how we are getting compensated for it, what is the asset rated, what is the mark-to-market value, and so on. Without full disclosure this plan is ripe for abuse and all purchases need to be fully disclosed. I suppose there is an argument that disclosing which institutions are selling assets to taxpayers could jeopardize the institutions, but since they would be receiving a capital infusion from the purchase this should not be an issue. Poor disclosure is one of the issues that got us here in the first place and any plan to address this crisis must include full disclosure.

3. The amount of this bailout is unclear. It specifies that:

The Secretary’s authority to purchase mortgage-related assets under this Act shall be limited to $700,000,000,000 outstanding at any one time

. This means we could be purchasing a lot more than $700 billion worth of this stuff, we just will not own more than $700 billion at any one time. How do we account for the value of these assets? If Treasury purchases an asset for $1 million and receives principal payments that reduce the face amount of the asset, do those payments reduce the $700 billion even though we may still take a loss on the balance of the $1 million we paid? If so, this is more likely a $1 trillion plan (or more).

In other bailout news (post AIG taxpayer bailout), the Fed established a line of credit that is reportedly $230 billion to purchase asset-backed commercial paper on a non-recourse basis (meaning the Fed will own the stuff). Asset backed commercial paper was at the heart of this crisis to begin with and is where funding dried up last week. What does this commercial paper fund? Everything, including auto loans, credit cards, and so on. If this market freezes your credit card may not work, and the resulting panic could be devastating. Think how you would react if told you could not charge your groceries on your credit card because Citibank doesn’t have the money to lend you. In addition, companies could find it impossible to fund payrolls causing more panic. This is one of the reasons Treasury acted on its plan – justified fear. (For a good explanation about how asset backed commercial paper works see this fitch report).

So what happened in the commercial paper market? In general, money market investors put money into money market mutual funds that then use the money to purchase assets including asset-backed commercial paper. But when a large money market mutual fund reported that it took a loss and that investors would lose money, money market mutual funds in general received calls for redemptions from investors who feared losing their money – a run on money market mutual funds. As night follows day, the mutual funds stopped purchasing commercial paper and put their liquidity into Treasury securities, driving the interest rate on short term Treasuries to negative on at least one issue and the interest rate on commercial paper way up. This is a clear dislocation in the credit markets and the Fed jumped in to provide liquidity for commercial paper. In addition to the Fed’s new plan to purchase commercial paper, Treasury reached back to a depression era law to insure money market mutual funds. Funds can buy into the plan that will insure investors against losses. This has irked some banks that believe this places them at a competitive disadvantage to insured money market mutual funds and could cause their funding to dry up – more unintended consequences (do I hear whack-a-mole?).

One more item on the list of things being done to avoid a total meltdown – relaxation of regulations on financial firms. Since these firms cannot raise any capital because their business models are in question regulators have relaxed capital requirements – temporarily, of course. Another thing regulators did was relax the restriction on using commercial bank deposits to fund investment bank operations. After the great crash of 1929 and the ensuing depression, Congress split up the investment banks and commercial banks because investments made by investment banks in equities were too prone to value fluctuation that could wipe out depositor funds. The FDIC was established to insure deposits and banks were limited as to what they could do with those deposits (to protect the taxpayers from having to bail out excessive risk taking). The law that kept investment and commercial banks separated was repealed in 1999, but there was regulation in place that prohibited these new combined banks from transferring commercial bank deposits to investment bank affiliates. Some of this regulation is currently being relaxed so that investment banks that are affiliated with commercial banks can get access to the stable deposit based funds of the commercial banks. The result is that to some extend the FDIC and taxpayer are now behind assets of the investment banking affiliates of the large commercial banks that have such affiliates. We have gone backwards (I bet Merrill Lynch and Bank of America appreciated this change that occurred the same time they merged).

For a time I was keeping tabs on the total cost of this credit implosion and the risk to taxpayers but the numbers are getting hard to follow. Based on current media reports the Fed is now up to $700 - $800 billion in credit and commitments, Treasury is asking for a $700 billion revolving credit facility from the taxpayers that is likely to be more than $700 billion in aggregate purchases, and so far the Federal Home Loan banks have issued some $250 - $300 billion in new taxpayer guaranteed debt to lend to banks against mortgage collateral. Oh yes, FHA has approximately $100 billion in new loan guarantees from FHA Secure and has another $300 billion authorized guarantee capacity to refinance defaulted mortgages. Are we at $2 trillion yet? If not, just add the GSE loans and MBS purchases Treasury plans (there are no limits on the amounts here) and whatever funds the GSEs need to stay solvent, and we have taxpayer exposure of well over $2 trillion even before the federal guarantees of the GSEs’ debt. These numbers don’t include losses that banks have reported on write-downs of securities. The result so far - Treasury has asked for an increase in the debt ceiling twice, this time to $11.3 Trillion (approximately 80% of GDP). One more point. If the total of all residential mortgages in The United States is in the $10.6 trillion range, and taxpayers now explicitly guarantee $5.5 trillion through Fannie and Freddie and are or will be at risk for say $2.5 trillion through all of the interventions noted above, then taxpayers could ultimately be on the hook (either through guarantees or ownership) for some 75 - 80% of the entire outstanding amount of residential mortgages in The United States. I find that staggering.

A couple of nits that I have:
1. Too bad Treasury didn’t go out and raise the money last week when interest rates on Treasuries were at historic lows. Probably would have saved a lot in interest.
2. CNBC should stop praising Jim Cramer as though he is some sort of visionary for talking about a bailout plan like this one. Everyone has always known that the government could step in and get behind lots of private debt to shore up the markets. In fact, everyone has been talking about it for some time. Treasury just didn’t until it was necessary because if it did it wouldn’t get approval for it. No great vision here. When Cramer comes up with a way to protect taxpayers that Congress will pass and that will resolve the credit crisis call me.
3. If there was ever a time to fix the unfair and disproportionate tax treatment for hedge fund and private equity managers (the 15% rate on “carried interest”), now would be it. In fact, several years ago would have been better. When this was in the public discourse several months back industry pundits argued that if you taxed hedge funds you would get less of them. Right now that sounds like a good idea. Fewer hedge funds, fewer credit default swaps, less systemic risk.
4. Like many of the talking heads on television, I am angered by all of the blatently excessive amounts of compensation paid to Wall Street bankers and executives over the past six years or so that is ultimately proving to be gains from the largest Ponzi scheme in the history of the world. There should be some recourse, though I don't claim to know how that could work.
5. With absolutely no proof that trickle down Reagan/Bush-onomics has ever worked, an exploding national debt, an exploding national deficit, and the impending baby boom retirement isn’t it time to stop talking about tax cuts for the investor class?
6. And finally, when will we, as a taxpaying and voting public, stop allowing the politicians to distract us with witch hunts for evil short sellers from the real issues – the fact that the political system has been for sale to the highest bidder and the highest bidder often turns out to be Wall Street and Wall Street.

PS - there are other developments, such as the Fed now accepting equities as collateral for certain loans under the Primary Dealer Credit Facility. To find out more about what the Fed is up to you can go to its website and click around the press releases.

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