Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Social Security Figures

2006, Dollars in million

Here is my estimate of the 2006 Social Security budget. These are estimates as they come from different sources (which is necessary to obtain the full picture). The data represent 2006 Old Age & Survivors Insurance (SSI) and Disability Insurance (DI) which are both funded through payroll deductions.

For the revenue side, I used both The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) 2008 Budget Of The United States Government Fiscal Year 2008 Historical Tables Tables 2.4 (page 43) & 8.5 (page 142), and Status of Social Security and Medicare Programs, A Summary Of The 2007 Annual Report. On the outflow side I used the OMB report.

Net savings to the fund is the amount of the increase in the Old Age & Survivors Insurance (SSI) and Disability Insurance (DI) trust funds for the period. Note that a significant contribution to Social Security revenue comes from interest on funds borrowed by the Federal Government from the trust funds and taxes on benefits. These get ignored when looking only at the OMB Budget figures but are certainly relevant here. The interest represents interest paid (and, of course, re-borrowed) by the Federal Government to the trust fund. Although I am calling these estimates, the net increase to the fund based on the SSA figures is within $1.5 billion looking at their figures vs. my estimates. This is pretty good, especially considering the fact that the OMB Budget report has Social Security outlays of $548,549 million in table 3.2 and $543,900 million in table 8.1. But hey, what's $4.5 billion among friends? (It was explained to me by an intern at OMB that this is due to classification differences.)

For "Welfare" costs go here.
For health care go here.
For the balance of the budget go here.

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